Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY).
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BEGIN RECEDING TO THE W AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL SHARPEN A TROUGH OVER
THE ERN SEA BOARD. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAN
THE EURO AND EVEN ALLOWS A PIECE OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP
SWD TO GA/SC BY SAT NIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AND THEN SLIP SWD AS A FRONT SETTLES INTO
THE SERN STATES. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST WHILE THE EURO STALLS IT N
OF THE AREA OVER N GA AND SC. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY MORE
SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY...SO WE PREFER NOT TO SHOW ANY FROPA ATTM.

WHILE TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS RECENT DAYS BY WEEK`S END...WE
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABUNDANT AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF EACH DAY FROM SCATTERED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP AND DEW POINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED HEAT INDICES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

THE GLOBAL MODEL ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE ERN ATLANTIC WILL BE A TC IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN
BAHAMAS BY SAT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM RECURVING
IN RESPONSE TO THAT DEEPENING E COAST TROUGH. THE 01/12Z EURO
BROUGHT A WEAKER AND PRESUMABLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM WWD INTO THE SE
GULF BY MON. THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.
THE NEW 00Z EURO...JUST IN...NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BUT FOR NOW WE PLAN TO SHOW NO
INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR DAY 7-8 FORECAST.


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