Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
MAIN FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE HEAT AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS BACK WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AND RESULT IN A SMALL BUT HELPFUL DROP IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THIS LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY THOUGH...WITH
TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER SWELTERING DAY.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE SAME POSITION FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 100 DEGREES. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ANOTHER DAY WITH A GOOD
THETA-E GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...THUS WILL INCLUDE
GUSTY WIND WORDING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE LOSS OF THE CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SEEMS JUST TOO DRY IN THIS SCENARIO...SO OPTED
FOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM...WHICH FAVORS LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...AND STARTING
EARLIER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...GENERALLY IN THE 103 TO 107
DEGREE RANGE.


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