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Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY...FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG (AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE). LARGE SCALE
SUPPRESSION UPPER THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
A FEW STATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES COULD MAKE A RUN AT 100.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH HEAT INDICES. LATEST GRIDS DO FALL SHORT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (110 DEGREES) ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES (GENERALLY
EAST OF ALBANY AND TALLAHASSEE). WILL BE DROPPING THE CURRENT
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE HOT WITH
HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES. FURTHER WEST INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK NEAR
110 DEGREES...AND WILL BE KEEPING THE ADVISORY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
POSITION SHOULD NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPRESSION TO SERIOUSLY PUT A
DENT IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY BEEN LOCALLY VIGOROUS AT TIMES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE IS FAVORING AFTERNOON STORM
FORMATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER SE AL/GA WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ITS OWN FOCUS FOR
STORMS... ESPECIALLY LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING WHEN LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER SEA-BREEZE STORMS ADD TO THE
CONVERGENCE. SFC TO MID-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCES ARE BETWEEN
25-30 K...WHICH WILL FAVOR WET-MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. HAVE SEEN SIMILAR PROFILES PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED AS WELL...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 110 IN THE WEST AND 105 IN
THE EAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN TRANSITION BACK TO LAND
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH 40-50% OF THE AREA SEEING A
DOWNPOUR.


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