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Short Term Forecast

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE OPPRESSIVE WEATHER
BEGINNING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER
POCKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER
AIR ALOFT (-5C AT H5) WILL STIFLE CLOUD GROWTH. HOWEVER...A PORTION
OF THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF AND BECOME
CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EVENING. THIS SHIFT
WINDS FROM SWLY TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT WILL STILL RAISE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. BUT...IT SHOULD ALSO
BRING INLAND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...OR TO
MORE NORMAL SUMMER LEVELS AND DROP MAX HEAT INDICES INTO THE
PALATABLE 105 DEGREE RANGE. SO A HEAT ADVISORY (110 DEGREES OR
HIGHER) WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. SO BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL STILL BE
HOT AND HUMID BUT SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE.

AS ON MONDAY...THE POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS OVERALL
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FAVORS
SOME EARLY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TYPE 4(LIGHT WSW) SEA BREEZE
REGIME FAVORS GULF SEA BREEZE...RETARDS E COAST SEA BREEZE AND
YIELDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIP. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST.
NAM/WRF 4KM DEVOID OF AN PRECIP EXCEPT FOR ISOLD AFTN CONVECTION WRN
MOST COUNTIES AND EVE CONVECTION ERN MOST ASSOCD WITH EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. CONVERSELY...GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER WITH DIFFERENCES
INCREASING FROM E-W. I.E. CTY 6 VS 16 PCT VS DHN 7 VS 50 PCT. THE
HIGHER POPS NW THIRD OF CWA MAY BE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT MAY THROW OUT TODAY. BUT
OVERALL THESE POPS ARE LOWER THAN PREV RUNS AND MAY BE EXPLAINED BY
LATEST SEABREEZE TOOL RUNS WHICH SHOWS A MORE WLY (VS SWLY
1000-700MB FLOW REGIME). WILL ASSUME SOME OUTFLOW CONVECTION WILL
REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH NRN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY. BUT OVERALL TEND
MORE TOWARDS DRIER NAM AND GO 40-20 PCT N-S POP GRADIENT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DROP INTO OUT CWA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TOO DRY FOR FOG. SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY WIDELY SCT EVE PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...TYPE 8 (NW AOB 10 KTS) SEA BREEZE REGIME FAVORS BELOW
NORMAL RAIN AND PINS ACTIVITY AND SEA BREEZE NEAR COAST. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...INLAND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 70. WITH RIDGE AXIS STILL CLOSE...
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. POPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEABREEZE CLIMO...20-30 PCT NW-SE POP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY...TYPE 8 (NW AOB 10 KTS) SEA BREEZE REGIME FAVORS FL COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RIDGE AXIS WEST OF LOCAL AREA (SLIGHT COOLING OF
MID/UPR LEVELS) AND TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG ATLC SEABOARD...
INCREASING MOISTURE FILTERING IN. ALSO...REMNANTS OF INITIAL TROUGH
WILL DRIFT SWD POSSIBLY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCE. THIS
REFLECTED IN HIGHER MODEL PWATS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MAIN LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF TO THURS
NIGHT. SO CONSIDERING EVERYTHING...WILL FORECAST 30 PCT POPS.


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