Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TODAY SHIFTING
TO THE WSW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT NLY ON WED. NORMALLY...THE FIRST TWO
DAYS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A RELATIVELY WET SEABREEZE REGIME.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...POPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN CLIMO AND NAM AND CLOSER TO GFS OVER THE
SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY THRU TUES...WHERE RIDGE IS WEAKEST. NLY SE
BREEZE ON WED TENDS TO PIN SEABREEZE AND ASSOCD CONVECTION NEAR
COAST.

TODAY....TYPE 6 SEA BREEZE (LIGHT SLY FLOW) FAVORS PANHANDLE COAST.
SE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE. SOME OF THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR TO OUR SOUTH (NOTED ABOVE) WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TALLAHASSEE AND ALBANY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD ACT TO LOWER CONVECTION OVER THESE ZONES...
ESPECIALLY UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY (EVENING) WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE COULD FINALLY FORCE A FEW STORMS. DESPITE
PRESENCE OF RIDGE...LOWER LEVEL SO HOT AND MOIST...THAN A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAN DEVELOP. POPS WILL REFLECT DECREASING INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUPPRESSION FROM E-W.

THE LACK OF CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S UNDER THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE (I.E. TLH GFS MODEL
SOUNDING WITH 1.8 TO 2 INCHES PWAT 18Z-00Z)...ANOTHER HOT AND
UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
HIGH...WITH MAX APPROACHING 110 DEGREES IN THE ERN MOST COUNTIES.
WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR INLAND ERN BIG BEND AND ERN 2/3RD OF GA
COUNTIES 18Z-22Z. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDICES 105 TO 108 ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...30 PCT EVE POPS MAINLY WRN BIG BEND AND PAHANDLE. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

TUESDAY...TYPE 4 SEA BREEZE (LIGHT WSW) FLOW FAVORS FL BIG BEND.
RIDGE A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST. WILL GO 30 TO 40 PCT
POPS...LOWEST PANHANDLE COAST. AS RIDGE DOMINATES FOR ANOTHER
DAY...SIMILAR OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST...TLH MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUES
AROUND 2 INCH PWAT DURING AFTN. MAX TEMPS A TAD LOWER THAN FOR TODAY
BUT ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF LOCAL AREA REMAINS
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...TYPE 8 SEA BREEZE (LIGHT NNW) FLOW FAVORS FL COAST.
DESPITE CONT WWD SHIFT OF RIDGE...OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORS WARMER TEMPS.
MID-UPPER 90S. WITH RIDGE WEAKER...WILL GO 20-40 PCT NW-SE POPS
GRADIENT...HIGHEST WHERE RIDGE WEAKEST.


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