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Local Area Weather Discussion 7/25 night

By: Tallahassee NWS
By: Tallahassee NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES UNDER THE CONTROL OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BACK TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS BEING FORCED WELL TO THE NORTH
OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. OTHER
FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
TO OUR NORTH...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SITUATED OVER THE TN VALLEY
WITH VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS
NORTHERN MS/AL AND GA. NO SUCH LUCK GETTING THIS FRONT DOWN TO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS. FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
ALLOWING THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FADING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ONLY STILL ACTIVE AREA IS DOWN TOWARD THE SUWANNEE
RIVER BASIN...AS A BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE EAST
COAST SEA-BREEZE APPROACHES LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES. THESE
ZONES MAY SEE A QUICK STORM THROUGH 10 PM.

WV IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A BAND OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...UNTIL VERY LATE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY (ESPECIALLY THE ZONES EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE AND ALBANY). THIS SCENARIO WOULD ACT TO KEEP CONVECTION
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE OVER THESE ZONES...ESPECIALLY UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE DAY (EVENING) WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE EAST COAST
SEA-BREEZE COULD FINALLY FORCE A FEW STORMS. THE LACK OF CONVECTION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S UNDER
THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE INTERIOR SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS CURRENT
FORECAST VALUES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES
(JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS AT 110 DEGREES). EITHER WAY IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE DAY REGION-WIDE.

INHERITED POP GRIDS HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. THIS
STILL SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THESE ZONES SEEING THE LEAST INFLUENCE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUPPRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEABREEZE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST OR FOG A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SCT-BKN CU
040-050 WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z...MOST NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY...BECOMING WESTERLY BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 75 95 74 93 75 / 20 40 30 40 30
PANAMA CITY 79 90 77 89 78 / 30 50 30 30 30
DOTHAN 76 95 74 94 75 / 30 40 30 40 30
ALBANY 77 96 76 96 76 / 20 40 20 40 20
VALDOSTA 74 97 74 95 74 / 20 40 30 40 30
CROSS CITY 75 93 74 94 75 / 30 40 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 78 90 79 88 79 / 30 40 30 30 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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