Bonnie's Last Update

By: National Hurricane Center and Oscar Fann
By: National Hurricane Center and Oscar Fann

(Oscar’s comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

…BONNIE DEGENERATES INTO A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1011
MB…29.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…A FEW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST…FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Oscar’s comments:

No surprise here if you have been following our posts and comments since Thursday afternoon. This particular system was unnecessarily hyped by several mainstream media sources with MSNBC even speculating that it might turn into a hurricane in the Gulf! No one with any kind of weather pedigree was calling for that possibility, and none of the computer guidance models did either.

As I mentioned previously, there should be no significant adverse impact on the oil spill from Bonnie, and in fact several positive results could occur (dilution, weathering, rougher seas, scouring and movement of what’s left of the near surface oil AWAY from the coasts), and interestingly, there seem to be very few concentrated areas of oil left on the sea surface. We can all be thankful for the limited oil damage (at least so far) PRIMARILY to the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico that served to bottle up most of the oil away from the coast.

In addition, (many of you already know this, but evidently many, including some in the national media, do not) wave action on the sea surface penetrates very LITTLE distance downward – in fact, the energy decreases EXPONENTIALLY with depth (unless in a very shallow area). Even mountainous 70 to 80 foot seas found mainly in North Atlantic winter type storms penetrate with rapidly diminishing energy to near zero beyond 200 feet. With the drill head at the broken oil well in the Gulf at 5000 feet plus, it was NEVER in jeopardy from any storm generated waves.

It’s easy to be an alarmist on any subject, it’s another thing to back it up with data and to then share that data with others so they may prove or disprove it.

More on the tropics (and other matters) farther down the road…

Oscar


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