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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT)...
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE WAS EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO FRI EVE. LATEST REGIONAL SATELLITE PIX SHOWING DECREASING
CONVECTION WITH EACH PIX. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THAT
BONNIE IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST LAND
AREA. WILL GO WITH 20 PCT OR LESS POPS EXCEPT 30 PCT PANHANDLE COAST
AND ADJACENT WATERS AND 40 PERCENT OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BROADER ENVELOPE OF DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
GIVEN THAT BONNIE HAS WEAKENED...HAVE TWEAKED DOWN WINDS/GUSTS A
FEW KNOTS EACH HOUR OVERNIGHT. BONNIE WILL AFFECT OUR REGION
SATURDAY...GIVING THE REGION AN ABOVE-AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...SURFACE WINDS.

THE APPROACH OF BONNIE MAY BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND SOME MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WATER LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT A TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ACROSS WRN MOST BEACHES. ACCORDING TO THE LOCAL SWAN...WE MAY
NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.


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