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Bonnie Downgraded to Depression 4pm cdt 7/23

By: Hurricane Center & Oscar Fann
By: Hurricane Center & Oscar Fann

(Oscar's comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

As we mentioned earlier this morning, there seemed to be a growing chance Bonnie might be losing what little organized circulation it possessed. Indeed, that has happened. In fact, there seems to be a near equal chance Bonnie degenerates into an open wave (no closed circulation) vs. becoming a tropical storm once again! If it does regain tropical storm status, it would be probably right before landfall. By the way, as we have said from early Thursday afternoon, the landfall seemed more likely for the Louisiana / Mississippi coast vs the earlier Hurricane Center track toward western Louisiana. Indeed, the new Hurricane Center track is now landfall along the La / Ms coasts late Saturday night / early Sunday morning.

Also, this path would help direct what oil is left near the spill site SOUTHWESTWARD – AWAY from the Gulf coast.

More later.


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