Tropical Storm Bonnie Update 10am 7/23

(Oscar’s comments at bottom)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN
FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3
WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC
STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...85 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTSOscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Bonnie is poorly organized and is showing even more signs of shear from the upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico.

As I mentioned earlier, the track continues to be shifted slightly more northwest toward the Louisiana / Mississippi coast and landfall occurring Saturday evening or night.

There may be a GROWING chance that Bonnie degenerates into either a depression or just an open wave. An open wave is a weak area of low pressure that has no recognizable circulation. Thus, the current marginal threat would be even less. However, if it stalled in the Gulf and the interfering upper low moved away, then it would get interesting, BUT there’s NO sign that scenario will occur!

Even though there are Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Okaloosa county westward, it appears for now tropical storm force winds would occur only out in the open Gulf waters during the day Saturday, but higher surf and possible dangerous rip currents could result in area beaches, especially from Destin westward.

More later today…..Oscar


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 99108909 - wtvy.com/a?a=99108909