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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) THE LATEST GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FORECAST AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO PERSIST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP LAYER
FLOW OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
(OVER THE FL PENINSULA) WILL CROSS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE A BIG SURGE IN MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE Q-G FORCING COULD COMBINE WITH ENOUGH LOW
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE (WHICH IS FORECAST BY NHC TO BE A TROPICAL STORM) IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY DIRECT EFFECTS FROM THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD TROPICAL ENVELOPE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT.


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