Thursday AM Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WE STILL MAY HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH IS NOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS) OVER OUR REGION TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA
UNDERNEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EVEN IF THIS DISTURBANCE
REMAINS AN UNORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE...IT MAY STILL BRING IN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EVEN AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS WELL TO OUR WEST...THERE
IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MARKED
BY HIGHER POPS AS WELL...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO
OUR EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW EVEN MORE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARRIBEAN AND SE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO OUR REGION. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER
POPS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HELP MODERATE HIGH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT (ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...BUT THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS APPEARS HERE TO STAY...WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS CONTINUING TO AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...MAY LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES OR GREATER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH NO DISTINCT END IN SIGHT.


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