Thursday AM Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS


...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF OUR LOCAL
AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROPICAL WAVE OF
INTEREST TO OUR LOCAL AREA POSITIONED OVER THE BAHAMAS ON A
NORTHWEST TRACK.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OR AROUND 98
DEGREES...WHICH WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX READING IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS AVERAGED OUT THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS...OR BELOW 700 MB...WILL BE OUT OF THE E AND NE DIRECTIONS
TODAY...WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS THE BEST AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE NEAR OUR W/SW ORIENTED COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES
COMBINED WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
TIFTON TO VALDOSTA OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENE FLOW IN
PLACE SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND SEA BREEZE PENETRATION THROUGH THE
DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUING ON ITS NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS THIS FEATURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY.


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