Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD
JUST N OF LOCAL AREA WITH MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
INTO FRI. SO...FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE ESE AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE WITH
A CONTINUED DIURNAL CYCLE OF SMALL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN/EARLY
EVE SHALLOW EAST COAST SEABREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. CHANCES
INCREASE BY SAT EVE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH AND WINDS
WEAKEN GENERATING A LESS SHALLOW SEA BREEZE. ALSO...A TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EARLY SAT
INTO MON. THE LATTER WAVE (UNDER PARENT LOW NOTED ABOVE) IN
PARTICULAR PUSHES ASSOCD MOISTURE NWWD TO BEGIN IMPACTING LOCAL
AREA BY SAT EVE. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
THIS WAVE AS WELL AS WITH FRONT TO OUR N. BOTH INDICATE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHICH MAY SERVE TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A LITTLE. HOWEVER...WETTER GFS
WANTS TO PUSH THE WEAK OH VALLEY FRONT SWD TO APPROACH CWA BUT
DRIER MORE ACCEPTED ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS
6/7.

WILL GO WITH NIL POPS THRU FRI NIGHT...WDLY SCT TO LOW SCT ON SAT
AND LOW-MID SCT POPS SUN-SUN NIGHT. UNDER INFLUENCE OF E COAST
SEABREEZE AND TRPCL WAVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS ERN BIG BEND
AND APALACHEE BAY. WITH HIGH ALOFT AND ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT
HOT AND SULTRY WEATHER. BOTH MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND CLIMO IS AROUND 71/92). DURING THURS
THRU SAT...COULD SEE HIGHEST MAX TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 98802664 - wtvy.com/a?a=98802664
Gray Television, Inc.