Sunday July 18 Forecast Discussion

By: National Weather Service
By: National Weather Service

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO FAR TODAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR NWRN ZONES. THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR E HAS MOVED A BIT FURTHER W
TODAY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSIDENCE N AND
W OF A TUTT CELL OVER S FL AND ALSO W OF AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO
RICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WE LIMITED ANY EVENING POP TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...
CLOSEST TO THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
THAT EXTENDS FROM LA ENEWD TO SC. FOR MON...WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE E AS AN ELY WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE ERN
GULF FROM NEAR CUBA. STILL...POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. BY TUE...POPS
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS...CLOSER TO THE WAVE WITH A
BELOW CLIMO 30 POP ELSEWHERE. TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN...WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WED MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
AREA SETTING UP A PERIOD OF EVEN HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM
PART OF THE FORECAST. SEE BELOW.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
COMMENCES WITH FLAT ZONAL FLOW IN NRN STREAM AND A TYPICALLY
SUMMERTIME BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN SRN STREAM WITH
HIGH CENTERED JUST N OF JAX AND DOMINATING LOCAL REGION. THIS RIDGE
AND RISING HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND
STRENGTHENS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT
PEAKS IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS INTO SAT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD TO
ACROSS LOCAL AREA. SO...FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
RATHER MOIST WITH A CONTINUED DIURNAL CYCLE OF SMALL CHANCES OF
MAINLY AFTN/EARLY EVE SEABREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A COUPLE OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ONE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND ANOTHER SAT. THE LATTER WAVE
(UNDER PARENT LOW NOTED ABOVE) IN PARTICULAR NUDGES RIDGE NWD AND
PUSHES ASSOCD MOISTURE NWWD TO BEGIN IMPACTING LOCAL AREA BY SAT
EVE. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF THIS WAVE AS WELL
AS WITH FRONT TO OUR N. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THE WEAK OH VALLEY FRONT
SWD BUT MORE ACCEPTED ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR DAY 6/7

WILL GO WITH AOB WDLY SCT POPS THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN...LO-MID SCT POPS ON SAT. WITH HIGH ALOFT AND ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT HOT AND SULTRY WEATHER. BOTH MIN/MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND CLIMO IS AROUND
71/92). DURING WED THRU FRI...COULD SEE HIGHEST MAX TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
SEAS HAVE SETTLED BACK BELOW 3 FT OVER THE WRN LEGS TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE E OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...VEERING TO SE MON
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. WE WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE WAVE PASSES S OF THE WATERS. MODERATE SELY
WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU WITH SEAS GETTING
BACK TO 4 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
MAINLY IN A NE-SW ORIENTATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BACK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA ON INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AT DHN AFTER 20Z...AND A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AFTER 21Z AT ABY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EVEN
AFTER SUNSET AS THE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA SLIPS SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNRISE ON MONDAY WHEN MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST FORECAST FOR THE SAINT MARKS RIVER AT NEWPORT
SHOWS THE RIVER INCHING A BIT HIGHER...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN HALF
A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL FRI OR SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 73 95 74 94 74 / 10 30 20 30 20
PANAMA CITY NW 75 94 76 94 76 / 10 20 20 30 30
DOTHAN 73 96 74 95 76 / 20 20 20 30 20
ALBANY 74 96 75 95 75 / 20 40 20 30 20
VALDOSTA 72 94 73 94 72 / 10 30 20 30 20
CROSS CITY 73 95 73 96 72 / 10 40 20 30 20
APALACHICOLA 75 91 77 91 78 / 20 30 20 40 30


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