Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
WITH THE DEEP LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE LOCKED IN PLACE...OUR LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S. FLOW STRENGTH WILL DROP OFF A
BIT FROM SAT INTO SUN WHICH GIVES US A TYPE 7 DAY SAT AND TYPE 6 DAY
ON SUN. THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR TO THE E HOWEVER WILL BE A BIGGER
CONTROL ON POP DISTRIBUTION THAN THE SEA BREEZE CLIMO. POPS WERE
BASED ON A COMBO OF THE WRF AND CONFIDENCE GRIDS WITH SOME NOD TO
THE CLIMATOLOGY AND DID NOT ACTUALLY CHANGE MUCH FROM THE INHERITED
POPS. FOR TONIGHT...POPS TAPER FROM 40 NW TO 20 SE. FOR SAT...WE
NUDGED THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WRN ZONES TO 70 AND THEN DROP OFF
TO THE E TO LOW CHANCE OVER DIXIE COUNTY. SUNDAY`S POPS ARE 10-20
PERCENT LOWER THAN THAT. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT JUMP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE ERN FL BIG BEND ON SUN DUE TO REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THAT AREA. DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL INCH BACK UP TO 30 K BY
SUN...SO THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
THAT DAY.


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