Long Term Discussion

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO LOOK TYPICALLY SUMMERLIKE. IT
COMMENCES WITH RIDGING OVER WRN CONUS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER ERN
CONUS...AND A SPRAWLING WARM CORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WRN ATLC
FROM SFC TO 594DM H5. ON MONDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS UPSTREAM RIDGE GRADUALLY EVOLVES EASTWARD AND THE
ATLC RIDGE BEGINS RETROGRADING WWD UNDER TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY
PUSHING AXIS OF MOISTURE NWWD. A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES WILL
MOVE UNDER THIS RIDGE. HOWEVER...THEIR EFFECT ON THE TRI-STATE AREA
IS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE OF
THE RIDGE.

ON WED...MEAN LAYER RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN N OF CWA...REACHING
598DM AT CENTER OVER N GA...AND 599DM ON THURS. MEANWHILE...TROUGH
NOW OVER EXTREME WRN ATLC AND N OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO SINK
SSW SHUNTING RIDGE BACK SWWD LATTER PART OF EXTENDED. AT LOWER
LEVELS... PERIOD BEGINS WITH SELY FLOW BUT AS RIDGE SHIFTS SWD LATE
IN THE PERIOD FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS OUR AREA ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY THRU EARLY WED...BUT DRY
ALOFT MAINTAINING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OVER AREA. WITH NO
APPRECIABLE UPPER DYNAMICS OR FRONT IN AREA...PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY
SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WILL GO WITH LO-MID SCT POPS EACH AFTN AND AOB WDLY SCT POPS EACH
NIGHT.THIS IS BELOW CLIMO. INLAND MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S... AND MID 90S THRU WED...MID-UPPER 90S ON
THURS...OR ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND CLIMO AROUND 70/92). HIGHEST TEMPS
WILL BE THURS/FRI AFTN WHEN LARGE AREA OF HIGH H850 TEMPS EXPANDS
SWD. EXPECT HEAT INDICES 100-105 DEGREES...EXCEPT 103-107 ON THURS.


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