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Short Term Discussion

TODAY...AN ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
CONSIDERING DEGREE OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT ABOVE 2 INCHES...CAPE AT
2500 TO 3500 J/KG...AND PRESENCE OF BOTH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID
TO UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE NE GULF...INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL OVER THE
EASTERN BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE MOST OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...ONE OR TWO COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
DAMAGING WINDS...OTHERWISE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBILITY OF EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...HAVE GONE WITH LOWER 90S INCREASING FROM WEST TO EST TO MID
90S FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS REALIZED AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TURNS TO LAND BREEZE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. SATURDAY SHOULD PLAY OUT MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS
AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLVING RIDGE AXIS KEPT
LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...BLENDED MAV/CLIMO TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 40 TO 50 POPS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL
EVOLVE MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY WITH AN EAST WEST GRADIENT FROM LOW
TO MID 90S WITH LOWS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW 70S. OVERALL...EXPECT AN
ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.


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