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July 11 NWS Area Weather Discussion

The ASOS station at the Tallahassee Regional Airport

The ASOS station at the Tallahassee Regional Airport

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 18 UTC SHOW WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THE BEST ENHANCEMENT OF THIS FIELD IS
LOCATED BACK WEST OF THE REGION AND OFF TO THE EAST CENTERED ABOUT
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SURFACE DATA SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE VAPOR CHANNEL THIS MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE
MOVED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BE THE REASON FOR THE
SLOW START TO THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IT WILL LIMIT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT).
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS DISSIPATES...FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SEA BREEZE DRIVEN EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

MONDAY...1000-700MB FLOW WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
CREATE A TYPE 5 FLOW REGIME. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL
ENABLE WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
REGIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ENTER OUR
REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON MONDAY WITH REGARD TO POP CHANCES. MAV
GUIDANCE POP NUMBERS SEEM INCREDIBLY HIGH FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE GFS FIELDS...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MODEL IS
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPECT. ON THE OTHERHAND...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE TOO DRY GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE TWO SETS OF
GUIDANCE. THIS WORKS OUT VERY SIMILAR TO A PERSISTENCE TYPE
FORECAST...WITH POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

TUESDAY...1000-700MB FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CREATING A TYPE 4 FLOW REGIME. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSPORT DRIER AIR
AND HELP PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FOR THAT REGION.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. A
LAND BREEZE WILL INCREASE POPS FOR COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. INCREASED MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL CREATE HEAT
INDICIES RANGING FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY).
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA
FROM THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
ESSENTIALLY SPLIT A BROAD UPPER RIDGE...PART OF WHICH WILL DOMINATE
THE S CENTRAL AND SWRN STATES AND THE OTHER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
START OUT S OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL FL AND THE NRN GULF AND THEN
DRIFT NWD TO THE GULF COAST FOR THU. BY FRI...THE RIDGING TO THE E
OF US BEGINS TO EXERT A BIT MORE INFLUENCE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFT N OF THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE CLIMO POPS
ON WED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE AND WILL THEN
SETTLE INTO SEA BREEZE CLIMO POPS FOR THU AND FRI. BY SAT AND SUN...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.
PREFER TO KEEP POPS JUST ABOVE CLIMO ON THOSE DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN WITH
LOW SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OFF TO A SLOWER START
COMPARED TO EARLY AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...STILL EXPECTING DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BR ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS WITH TEMPO
GROUPS BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 75 95 75 / 30 60 20 40 20
PANAMA CITY 78 90 79 90 79 / 30 50 20 20 20
DOTHAN 76 93 75 94 76 / 30 60 20 40 20
ALBANY 76 94 76 96 76 / 20 60 30 40 20
VALDOSTA 75 93 75 95 74 / 30 60 30 50 20
CROSS CITY 76 92 75 94 74 / 30 50 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 79 89 79 90 78 / 30 40 20 30 20


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