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July 10 Weather Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...CONTINUED HIGH HEAT INDICIES OF 103 TO 108 DEGREES POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...

.SYNOPSIS...18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
LOOKS TO BE BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY HAS GENERALLY BEEN ALONG THIS WEAK
CONFLUENT ZONE. ENHANCED CU FIELD HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
TROF IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM TYNDALL AFB NORTHEAST
TO VALDOSTA. SO FAR...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW...LIKELY DUE TO A WARM LAYER AT 925MB...BUT AS HEATING
CONTINUES...EXPECT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT REGION WIDE. THE TAE
SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING DISPLAYED DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-750MB
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN STORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT).
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF WEAK TROF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WHILE THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DRIVEN
BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONTS AS THE TROF GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
ON MONDAY. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE THOUGH IN THE FAVORED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DEVOID OF ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE
INFLUENCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF MID
SUMMER. THE TROPICS ALSO CONTINUE TO LOOK QUIET. THE PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S FL AND
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD AND LIE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THU ONWARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE DAILY SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE SWLY FLOW REGIME OF TUE GRADUALLY MORPHING
INTO THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE REGIME BY WEEK`S END. POPS WILL START
OUT ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN SETTLE TO NORMAL FROM WED ONWARD. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOCAL GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT WITH THE NEARBY SURFACE TROF. AS THIS BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETURNS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE
PROFILE CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO
OCCUR AS WELL...SO KEPT 30 KT GUSTS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS.
HOWEVER...GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE THREAT FOR MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FG/BR WILL
DEPEND IN PART ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...BUT
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS OF EARLY
MORNING RESTRICTIONS AT KVLD WHICH IS MORE PRONE TO SEEING FG/BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 76 94 76 / 30 60 30 60 30
PANAMA CITY 80 90 80 90 79 / 30 50 30 50 30
DOTHAN 75 95 75 94 76 / 40 50 30 60 30
ALBANY 76 95 76 95 77 / 40 50 30 60 30
VALDOSTA 75 92 75 94 74 / 30 70 30 60 30
CROSS CITY 75 91 76 92 75 / 30 50 30 60 30
APALACHICOLA 79 89 79 89 78 / 30 50 30 50 30


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