Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SATURDAY...LOOK FOR FOG TO AGAIN START THE DAY. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH PASSING FRONT IS THIN AND UNIMPRESSIVE. TAE GFS MODEL SOUNDING WITH 1.32 PWAT 18Z SAT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ONLY TO H8-H9. THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN QPF GUIDANCE..I.E. HPC QPF ONLY ABOUT 0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH TOTAL. SO ONLY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO AT BEST LOW SCATTERED POPS. SEVERE WX GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ACROSS SRN TAIL OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE LIFT OR DEEP LYR SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WITH PROXIMITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C AND WARM DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP (IRREGARDLESS ONLY SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE) COULD PULSE UP AND MAY BE BRIEFLY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL BEST BET BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTN OVER GA/BIG BEND AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING. THIS REFLECTED IN LATEST LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL WHICH NOW SHOW 6% CHANCE OF SEVERE WX ACROSS MOST OF CWA 18Z SAT-00Z SUN. SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FROPA DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM NW-SE. EXPECT LOWS LOWS 50S SE ALA TO AROUND 60 SE BIG BEND. SUNDAY...HIGHS 80 SE ALA TO 85 SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOWS IN MID 50S. MONDAY...HIGHS IN MID 50S.


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