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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OUR NEXT FRONT. THE WEEKEND BEGINS WITH A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING THE EASTERN REACHES OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND STAY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOCATION JUST WEST OF THE GULF COAST STATES. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FIZZLING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...RIDGING WILL PROVIDE US WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PROVIDE THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SEABREEZE STORMS. OTHER THAN THAT...ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR INCREASED POPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE.


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