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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SUN NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WILL NOTE THAT THERE ARE SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND A CANADIAN MODEL THAT FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION...WILL WEIGHT THE THE EXTENDED PERIOD CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF SPRAWLED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CAN BE OBSERVED ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. THE EARLIEST SHORTWAVE (AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO BRING A SURFACE FRONT TO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE QUICKLY WASHES OUT AND WILL NOT HAVE THE ENERGY TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL BE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE LINE THAT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL AND STABLE FLOW. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL AGAIN BE THE TREND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BUT WILL UP THE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. BY TUESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS TO OUR EAST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS PUTS US ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


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