Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE GFS IS THE MORE BULLISH OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND WILL GENERALLY TAKE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET POPS AND SHOW 40% ACROSS THE BOARD. ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN AND BUILDING FURTHER NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE DRYING CLEARLY SHOWS UP ON MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND THIS SUPPRESSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...THE BUILDING RIDGE...THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED INSOLATION ALL ADD UP TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD 90+ DAY ON SUNDAY AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS.


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