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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO START OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POWERFUL LATE APRIL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE RESULTING GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AN INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AFTER A COOL START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...GFS APPEARS TO BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN ITS AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FEEL A BLEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS DRY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT IN A WEAK AND FAST MOVING H5 IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST OVERHEAD. THIS WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE INCREASINGLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE MODELS DIVERGE JUST A BIT ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN FEATURES...BUT IT COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ZONES. GFS IS SHOWING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES TO MOVE OVERHEAD...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. CERTAINLY WOULD BE EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BUILDS A 591DM RIDGE FURTHER WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS POSITIONS WILL BE MORE PROTECTIVE...AND LIKELY KEEP OUR WEEKEND MOSTLY DRY AND RATHER HOT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHILE BUMPING POPS DOWN AND TEMPS UP A BIT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT IF GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION...THEN CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.


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