Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE 23 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG I-10 IN NORTH FL. THIS FEATURE...SEEN AS A FINE LINE ON THE LOCAL RADAR NETWORK DISPLAY...SEPARATED NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME INTERMINGLING WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT...BUT THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING THAT IT IS PRIMARILY A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...THE TROPOSPHERE (EXCLUDING A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR 800 MB) IS QUITE DRY AND THERE IS ACTUALLY SINKING AIR ALOFT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT...UNTIL POSSIBLY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT KEATON BEACH WHERE THE WIND WAS OUT OF THE WEST AT 23 GUSTING TO 26 KT. WE THINK THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE AS THE LARGER SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA IS NOT ALL THAT TIGHT. ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE OCCURRING NOW...AND THAT THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS WERE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...AND WE EXPECT THAT THEY HAVE PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING IN THE MARINE FORECAST (AS OPPOSED TO RE-ISSUING AN ADVISORY).


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