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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD SLIDING EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SREF DOES OUTPUT SOME VERY LOW QPF VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME TO EXPRESS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.


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