Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)... FINALLY...GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING CONCERNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND FARTHER SOUTH EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MAIN FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDE A BIG CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... NORTH-SOUTH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLING IN ACROSS OUR REGION. ON MONDAY...MOISTURE DEEPENS UP IN THE LOWER 3KM. POSSIBLY SOME PASSING WEAK SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES PASS ON WED...MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE. LATEST GFS SLOWS BOTH THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH... HOLDING OFF TIL THE WEEKEND NOW. EURO SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT MOVING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH AND OPENING THE UP THE GULF SOMEWHAT EARLIER. ALL IN ALL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD...AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...BUT NOTHING ABOVE A CHANCE.


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