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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... A CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED...AND ENERGY INCREASES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SUNDAY WHERE IT STALLS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE EURO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... DEVELOPING A GULF LOW...AND SPREADING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND INTRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


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