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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PARKS ITSELF IN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY...AND STAYS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHEAST...500-MB HEIGHTS WILL DROP AS MUCH AS 80M BY SATURDAY. THE 582DM HEIGHT CONTOUR WILL DROP DEEP INTO CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE ACROSS OUR REGION NOT CAUSING MUCH HARM UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN NEW ENGLAND AND APPROACHING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS DISSIPATING FRONT IS LOCATED RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. AS TO THE EURO...THE SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER TROUGH AND GULF LOW APPROACHES. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE ACCEPTED THE GFS SOLUTION. AS TO TEMPS...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


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