Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY...MODELS PROJECT THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW IN THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF MEXICO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE RISE BY THE BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM THE GFS BY ABOUT 24 HOURS NUDGING THE SYSTEM OVER THE BIG BEND AND COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS FORECAST IS A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AND SILENT 10 REMAINING DAYS. ONCE MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OR DECREASED. FOR NOW...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDY DAYS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MODERATE DAILY HIGHS AND LOWS WITH VALUE RIGHT AROUND WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY GET ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING BEFORE THE HOTTER DAYS OF SUMMER MOVE IN.


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