Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A LOW ACROSS OK WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS CNTRL TX AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO TN VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE TROUGH...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW MOVING TO TN/KY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE VIRGINIA`S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN RESPONSE ...LOCAL HIGH NUDGED TOWARDS ERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VEERING FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS BEGINNING THURS MORN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND GUSTS FROM W-E THRU THE DAY WITH A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WRN CWA. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 0.49 INCH PWAT AT 00Z THURS INCREASING TO 1.33 INCH 00Z FRI THEN DOWN TO 0.44 INCH AT 12Z FRI. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUFFICIENT JET DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL EXIST FOR AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE NE GOMEX THU AFTN/EVE AND THIS WILL SHIFT NEWD OVER LAND. PER 21Z WRF4KM MAIN RAIN BAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE 21Z-22Z THURS AND SPREAD E/NE ACROSS LOCAL AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY BIG BEND...THRU 06Z FRI. HEAVIEST RAIN CLEARLY ACROSS BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL WATERS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A BLEND OF THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THE HPC FORECAST OUTPUT 1-2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE WX...IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BUT BEST REGIONAL FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR NW...OVER MS/AL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS TOMORROW. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ACROSS CNTRL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE SE ALA/SW GA...AND THEN EWD WHERE CLOUDS AND AN ALREADY RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE FURTHER WITH DIURNAL COOLING. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (AND HEAVIEST RAIN) WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE VALDOSTA SWWD TO DESTIN THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS..ESPECIALLY WHERE A STRONGER STORM COULD COME ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEX. HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR LOCAL SEVERE WX...MORE OF A SPS TYPE ENVIRONMENT.


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