Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INDICATE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT...THEN EAST OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AND DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FROM THE RECENT FEW DAYS...THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT...INTO THE MID 40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY DROPPED THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE OTHER DAY...WHICH IS DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES AHEAD THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. AS THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE COOL SHELF WATERS OUT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AS THE ONSHORE WINDS BEGIN. THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED TOMORROW UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...A FEW TO SCT VERY SHALLOW CU FIELD NEAR THE COAST WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER SRN PLAINS AND THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH REGARD TO THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMUATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE SHOWING VALUES RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER SE ALABAMA AND SW GA TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE BIG BEND COAST.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 88967877 - wtvy.com/a?a=88967877
Gray Television, Inc.