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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING OVER WRN HALF OF CONUS AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WITH LOW OVER WRN TN VALLEY. AT SURFACE...FRONT HAD EXITED CWA AND WAS LOCATED OVER N/CNTRL PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS INTO MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THEN...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND COOL/STABLE NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THRU TUES. AT THIS TIME NRN AND SRN STREAM IMPULSES...ORIGINATING IN THE PAC NW AND BAJA RESPECTIVELY...MOVE EWD AND PHASE HELPING TO DEVELOP A STRONG TROUGH/LOW OVER SRN PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE BY WED AFTN. THIS TROUGH TO APPROACH LWR MS VALLEY BY END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. AS A RESULT...ERN SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO E AND THEN ONSHORE PROVIDING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING LOCAL TEMPS. APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EWD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ESE. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. POPS WILL SHOW SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN SUN NIGHT...MAINLY SE THIRD OF CWA. THEN...NIL POPS REST OF PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO IS UPPER 40S) SUN-TUES NIGHTS THEN AS NEXT WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO FORM AND LOCAL WINDS VEER...MINS RISE TO AROUND CLIMO WED-THURS NIGHT. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO MID 70S) AND 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON TUES BEFORE RISING TO SEASONAL LEVELS WED AND THURS.


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