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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

A RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS IS FINALLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND THE MOIST LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT. THE MODELS SEEM AWFUL FAST THOUGH AT THE RATE OF DRYING BELOW 700 MB...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY COULD BE LIMITED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION IN PART DUE TO ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT...WILL BLEND THE COOLER LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST MAV NUMBERS. SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE COAST (UPPER 60S). IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ONLY PROVIDE ABOUT 18 HOURS OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SHELF WATERS STILL VERY COOL AND THE QUALITY OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVELY POOR...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAND MASS BEFORE 12Z. BECAUSE THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL NOT RAISE POPS HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.


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