Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND 16/12Z EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. BOTH SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE EURO SLIGHTLY STRONGER. DURING THIS SAME TIME THE STRONGER SURFACE LOW OF THE EURO IS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE THE GFS IS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. DESPITE THE GFS SURFACE LOW POSITION BEING FURTHER EAST...THE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LAG BY ABOUT 6 HOURS BEHIND THE EURO AS IS IT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY. THE EURO BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT EAST OF OUR ZONES BY 18Z...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE FROPA ENTERING OUR GA AND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES AT 18Z. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND SHOW POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FOR MOST ZONES IN THE EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MAKING WAY FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE JUST AFTER THIS EXTENDED RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MID TO LATE MARCH IS IN THE MID 70S WITH AVERAGE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.


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