Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR REGION IS THE LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITHIN THIS TROUGH WE FIND A DOUBLE CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE...WITH ONE LOW SPINNING OVERTOP OF OUR HEADS...AND ANOTHER PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. 18/00Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING NO LACK OF MOISTURE UNDER THIS UPPER LOW...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE BELOW 700MB. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OVERHEAD...ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN HAS UNDERGONE A 5-10C DROP IN TEMPERATURE. THE 850MB TEMP HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 2C WHICH IS BETWEEN A 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WITH THIS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL FORECAST TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE IS ON TAP. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXITING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN A BRIEF RAMP UP OF WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TILL 400 AM AS ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DROP OFF IN THE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. INITIAL LOBE OF ENERGY IS EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING TAKING THE MAIN AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH IT. STILL SEEING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER THIS PRECIP SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...ALBEIT COOL AND RAW. TEMPS WILL FALL SLOWLY FROM THEIR EARLY EVENING "HIGHS" IN THE LOW/MID 50S (15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL)...TO THE MIDDLE 40S BY SUNRISE. CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE WITH THE ENERGY OVERHEAD DURING THURSDAY. MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FEW SCT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN FROM TIME TO TIME CAN BE EXPECTED. EVEN WITH FULL MIXING (WHICH WE WILL NOT HAVE)...HIGH TEMPS WOULD ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S. THEREFORE THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE.


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