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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AS MENTIONED ABOVE... THE LION`S SHARE OF THE RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND WE COULD VERY WELL REPEAT THIS SCENARIO BETWEEN THE LATTER HALF OF 06 UTC TONIGHT AND THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE 12 TO 18 UTC PERIOD OF FRIDAY. THEREFORE... THE WATCH DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN DESCRIBED ABOVE. IT ALSO NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED THAT WE WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX UNTIL 12 UTC ON SAT...BUT THE ACTUAL THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY FRI AFTERNOON. IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THIS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING AND COORDINATION WITH SPC (THANKS MUCH FOR THE CHAT AFTER THE NEW DAY 2 OUTLOOK SPC!) BUT THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL MAY BE ACROSS AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAT DO NOT GET DELUGED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ARE ALLOWED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE. ALSO...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE BETTER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM THREAT...SO WE WILL BE ON HEIGHTENED ALERT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR ANY AND ALL POTENTIAL HAZARDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS FAIR...BUT PERHAPS A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AS THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.


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