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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...VERY COMPLEX FCST IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE PREDOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE A SERIES OF SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHILE MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR NORTH TODAY AS THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR...THIS CERTAINLY WON`T BE THE LAST OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT...AND WITH THE VERY MOIST AND ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM WE MAY VERY WELL EXPERIENCE 2 MORE DISTINCT BOUTS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FIRST BATCH IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE THE 2ND COULD FOLLOW A FAIRLY SIMILAR ROUTE OR MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE AND UNCERTAINTY...FEEL THAT IT IS SAFEST TO BLANKET THE CWA WITH THE FLOOD WATCH INTO FRI WITH A GENERAL 2-4" RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALSO...HAVE NOT YET ADDRESSED THE SVR WX POTENTIAL...BUT THANKS TO THE BRIEFING OF THE OTHER LEAD WHO HAS BEEN WORKING THE PUBLIC DAY SHIFT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...HE HAS PASSED ON THE IMPORTANT INFO THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LAG THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE OVERALL THREAT ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...THINGS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO DO NOT WANT TO DISCOUNT THE OVERALL THREAT AT THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY... THINGS SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW.


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