Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WET WITH THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY...ALL RAIN ACTIVITY WILL HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW QUIET DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR US STARTING ON SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF FINALLY SWEEPS ANY REMAINING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT OF OUR AREA AND FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ACROSS THE REGION (OR SLIGHTLY BELOW) WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS A POTENT CLOSED LOW DIVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EURO. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO NOW BRING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA LEAVING US ON THE COOLER MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE LOW. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EURO HAD THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL AREA AND PAIRED IT WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WHICH COULD HAVE PROVIDED US WITH SOME INTERESTING WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EURO STILL HAS THE UPPER LOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS PORTRAYS AND TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA BUT WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE LATEST RUN...ANY SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE OUT OF THE PICTURE.


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