Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES UNDER A DIFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL COMBINE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE MEAN TROUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY SO ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL RETURN FLOW AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BEST LIFT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS...WILL PAINT A FAIRLY SHARP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WITH THE POP GRIDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOT EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE PANHANDLE FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY QPF ACROSS THIS AREA. 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS VERY HIGH QPF OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM WITH A 4-INCH SWATH OF STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HPC QPF GRIDS...WHICH WERE USED AS BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE AN LARGE AREA OF 2- TO 3-INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS. A SHARP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. AT THIS TIME...SFC INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY LAG THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FURTHER HINDERED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


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