Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE PIVOTING ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/LOWER LEVEL UPGLIDE SHOULD GIVE OUR REGION A GOOD CHANCE AT A BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEST FORCING SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ENERGY IS THEN PROGGED TO PHASE WITH ONE MORE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...AND CLOSE OFF INTO A DOMINANT UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING...TEMP FORECAST WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT. ALL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE. ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL IS VERY HIGH WITH 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 10C. ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNNY BREAKS AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOMEWHERE APPROACH 80. NOT BOLD ENOUGH TO GO THIS HIGH QUITE YET AND WILL CAP THE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNTIL THE DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR. AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW ENERGY ROUNDING ITS BASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GFS CREATES A DISTURBANCE WHICH PASSES JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS TO NOT GIVE US TO MANY PROBLEMS. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DOES MOVE THIS ENERGY CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST/EASTERN BIG BEND. WILL RUN A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA AND SOUTHWARD. EITHER WAY THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FIND OUR REGION IN A DRIER REGIME ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


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