Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY). THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE IN SITU DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER A SERIES OF MORNING FREEZES...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70-75 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE 00Z GFS HAS NOW COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM AND 12Z EURO WITH THE CLOSED LOW THAT EMERGES INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY IS OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER UPSTREAM LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS TX AND OK WEDNESDAY AND BROADENS/FILLS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM KICKS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MODIFIED PACIFIC WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AL AND GA PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEYOND THIS PERIOD (SATURDAY).


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