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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 03/00Z GFS/GEM AND 02/12Z EURO MODELS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER FLATTENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH A LIGHT FREEZES FOR INLAND AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLOWLY RISING DEW POINTS AS AN ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A RETURN TO A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH DAYTIME POPS CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT.


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