Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THERE ARE NUMEROUS ISSUES TO ADDRESS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACHING GULF LOW. IN TERMS OF THE PREFERRED MODELS...THE NAM WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE GFS. THIS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE AREA AS OUTLINED BELOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO TAMPA...WE HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES INTO A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX STORM SURGE LINING UP WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WATER WILL BE PUSHED UP INTO THE SHALLOW WATER AREA IN THE EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DURATION OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS NOT IN AND OF ITSELF EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...A SQUALL LING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP PUSH THIS WATER EASTWARD TO THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COAST WITH WIND QUICKLY SHIFTING TO STRONG ONSHORE WESTERLIES BEHIND IT. WHILE THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS BASED ON THE GFS...WHICH IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS AND STORM TRACK (HIGHER AND FURTHER TO THE N)...WE BELIEVE THAT THE ACTION OF THE SQUALL LINE...WELL DEPICTED IN THE LOCALLY RUN WRF MODEL...WILL RESULT IN GREATER SURGE THAN WOULD BE PREDICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RUN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN FL AND AROUND AN INCH N OF THE BORDER. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SERIOUS AREAL FLOODING CONCERNS. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE EXISTING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE ERN GULF WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT TO SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR IN A MARINE WARM SECTOR. STILL...WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE NLY TRACK OF THE LOW AND FAVORABLE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OUT OVER THE GULF. ANY TS OVER LAND SHOULD BE ELEVATED FOR THE MOST PART. FINALLY...THERE IS THE REMOTE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX AS THE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING. WE HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR A CHANGE. OF COURSE IT WILL BE COLD. FREEZES FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.


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