Gulf Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

A POTENT GULF LOW AND ATTENDING SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE OUR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AS THE PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPROACHES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE. BY TOMORROW MORNING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE STILL LIKELY. SEAS FROM 9 TO 11 FEET WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF OUR MARINE ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS IN APALACHEE BAY. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE MAKES COASTAL FLOODING A CONCERN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF APALACHEE BAY ACROSS TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER EASTERN SECTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP...IT WOULD BE IDEAL AS IT WOULD CORRESPOND TO LOW TIDE. STILL...A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS APALACHEE BAY WITH WESTERN APALACHEE BAY TO EXPECT NEAR 1 FOOT SURGE...AND EAST PARTS OF THE BAY SEEING UP TO 2 FEET. FURTHER DOWN THE COAST EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FOOT SURGE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. THESE ARE LOCATIONS WHERE THE 3 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. COASTAL LOCATIONS WEST OF APALACHICOLA CAN EXPECT A MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 1 FOOT STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE NEEDED HOWEVER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE.


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