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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE LAST TWO MONTHS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY CULPRIT IN LOCKING IN THE COLD AIR IS THE VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BRIEFLY TODAY...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN TRACK BEING FORCED BY THE DEEP NEW ENGLAND STORM. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY TAKE IT INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPRESSED TRACK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GENERALLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. IN FACT...ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. REGARDLESS...PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND DRY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE POTENTIAL PRECIP. ONLY CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIP WOULD BE DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 3KFT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANYTHING FROZEN TO MELT BEFORE REACHING THE SFC. WHILE AN ICE PELLET/SNOW FLAKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE CHANCES SEEM SLIM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES BEING SO LOW. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


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