Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE LOW IN E TX WILL BE FORCED TO TAKE A TRACK OFF TO THE SE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LARGER CYCLONE ALONG THE E COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW PASSING S OF THE AREA ON SAT AND CROSSING THE SW FL COAST NEAR FT MEYERS SAT AFTERNOON. POPS TONIGHT WERE CONFINED TO OUR PANHANDLE ZONES FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY W. NE OF THERE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. FOR SAT...WE SHOW A N-S POP GRADIENT RANGING FROM LIKELY OVER THE GULF TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SE AL AND SRN TIER GA AND THEN SILENT 10 N OF THERE. THERE HAS BEEN DISCUSSION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SAT MORNING. AFTER THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS NICELY TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO...THE 12Z GFS IS ONCE AGAIN COMPLICATING MATTERS. GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND WE ARE SEEING THAT IN BUFKIT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IF WE WERE FORECASTING HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD FORCE A CHANGE-OVER. SINCE WE DO NO SEE THIS HAPPENING...THE BEST FORECAST IS TOO GO WITH ALL RAIN. SAT NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS DOWN AROUND FREEZING ONCE AGAIN OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ON SUN WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 60S. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SUN NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.


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