Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN OUT AS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DOES NOT MODERATE MUCH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HEATING PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... EVEN WITH DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 50S SOUTH AND LOW 50S NORTH. WILL BE A VERY DRY DAY WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THESE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AND INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S. STILL SOME CONCERN AS TO THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THAT MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS CAN DISRUPT THE RADIATIVE PROCESS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW WE DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING THE AREAS OF MID 20S WILL BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE THE LEAST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED AND WHERE THE SANDIER SOIL TYPES WILL AID THE TEMPERATURE DROP. HARD FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL GO WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS. LIMITED MIXING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE COLUMN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INTO THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPING OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MS DELTA REGION. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS FROM REACHING OUR AREA. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTAL ZONES.


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