Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH TRACK THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE US ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW AND RESULT IN COLD...LIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THINGS CLEAR OUT NICELY FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. BY MONDAY OUR NEXT...AND MUCH MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS STORM IS NOT NEARLY AS GOOD AS WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE EURO BRINGS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE EURO ALSO HAS A MUCH LARGER MOISTURE FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH UPON A PARTIAL THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS...COULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FAR OUT...VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IS PLACED IN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. MORE MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IS NEEDED BEFORE ANY CONFIDENCE CAN BE PLACED IN THE PRECIP FORECAST. BY TUESDAY RAIN COMES TO AN END AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY ALL IS QUIET ONCE AGAIN.


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